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Orderly Predict trades happen inside rounds: fixed-length cycles that open for trading, record a starting price, and settle to UP, DOWN, or a tie at expiry. This page covers round states, how the outcome is decided, and how settlement works. For order types, price limits, and how to exit a position, see Trading Rules.

Life of a round

Rounds don’t open one at a time, back to back — Orderly keeps several upcoming rounds open for trading at once, each waiting on its own strike. A round opens for trading roughly 10 rounds’ worth of lead time before its strike is recorded (about 50 minutes, since each round is 5 minutes); the platform can adjust this lead time, so treat it as approximate rather than a fixed window. During this lead time — and until the strike is recorded — the round shows as “strike pending,” as in the first row below.

Order cutoff

A round keeps accepting new orders, order edits, and cancellations right up until its order cutoff.
  • Whether a request makes the cutoff is judged by the time Orderly’s server receives it, not the time you sent it — a request that arrives after the cutoff is rejected, even if you sent it in time.
  • Requests that reached the server before the cutoff are processed normally.
  • The cutoff defaults to 5 seconds before expiry, though the platform can adjust this — if your order is rejected as the round closes, it means you missed this window, whatever the exact margin was at the time.

How the outcome is decided

Orderly Predict uses a Predict Index: a rolling 60-second time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Orderly’s BTC index price. The entire Predict Index series is calculated this way, with a new value every second; the underlying BTC index itself is unchanged. Every round using the Predict Index compares two values from this series:
  • Strike (S0): the Predict Index value at the observation start time.
  • Expiry price (S1): the Predict Index value at the expiry time.
Each boundary value already averages the preceding 60 seconds; S0 and S1 are not averaged again. For consecutive rounds using the same Predict Index, one round’s expiry price is the next round’s strike. The price source is fixed when a round is created: rounds created before the TWAP transition retain their original index source until settlement; rounds created after the transition use the Predict Index.
  • If the expiry price is above the strike, UP wins.
  • If the expiry price is below the strike, DOWN wins.
  • If the expiry price equals the strike, the round is a tie — both sides settle at $0.50 per share.
See the Glossary for short definitions of strike, expiry price, and outcome.

Settlement

Once the outcome is decided, it’s published the next time round info refreshes (see the timing below). The round’s settlement price is fixed per share: $1 for the winning side and $0 for the losing side, or $0.50 for both sides if the round ties. There’s no separate settlement fee for this step — only the trading fees you already paid when you opened or closed your position apply; see Orderly Predict fees. Publishing the outcome and crediting your funds are two different moments:
  • The outcome (UP, DOWN, or tie) is published the next time round info refreshes after it’s decided — round info updates about once a minute, so there can be a delay of roughly a minute or sometimes longer.
  • Your position is then closed at the settlement price, and the resulting balance returns to your account balance. This can happen a short time after the outcome is published.
Your position only shows as settled, with its final profit or loss, once this second step completes.

Example: a tied round

Say you bought 100 UP shares at $0.60 per share, for a total cost of $60. If the round ties, your position settles at $0.50 per share: 100 shares x $0.50 = $50. You get back $50 against the $60 you paid, a $10 loss before trading fees — even though you didn’t guess the direction wrong. A tie pays a fixed $0.50 per share regardless of your entry price, so whether it’s a profit or a loss for you depends on what you paid.

When price data is delayed

If the price needed to record the strike or the expiry price isn’t available right away, the round stays in Settling until it is. No substitute or estimated result is created, and your position and funds stay locked until a real outcome is reached. In rare cases, Orderly may need to manually verify and record the missing price before the round can settle; see Supplemental Terms for Orderly Predict for the terms that cover this.