> ## Documentation Index > Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://staging-docs.orderly.network/llms.txt > Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further. # Orderly Predict Overview > Learn what Orderly Predict is and how UP and DOWN trades work. Orderly Predict is a market on BTC, settled every 5 minutes, where you trade on whether the price finishes a round up or down. You can place a trade well before a round's 5-minute decision window starts -- see [Rounds and Settlement](https://staging-docs.orderly.network/introduction/trade-on-orderly/orderly-predict/rounds-and-settlement.md) for when a round opens. This page explains how UP and DOWN trades work, how their prices relate to each other, and how Orderly Predict differs from perpetual futures. ## How UP and DOWN prices work When you trade on Orderly Predict, you're paying a cost per share for a payout that depends on the round's outcome, not buying a direct read on probability. * If UP is priced at \$0.57, you pay \$0.57 per share. If BTC finishes the round higher than the round's strike, each share pays \$1 -- a \$0.43 gain before trading fees. * If your side loses, the share pays out \$0, and the \$0.57 you paid is gone. * If the round ties, every share -- UP and DOWN alike -- pays out \$0.50. * Because ties settle at \$0.50, a price is not the same as the probability that BTC finishes higher. A trading fee applies when your order fills; see [Orderly Predict fees](https://staging-docs.orderly.network/introduction/trade-on-orderly/trading-basics/trading-fees.md#orderly-predict-fees). There's no separate fee when a round settles. ## UP and DOWN are two sides of one trade Every round has exactly one outcome: UP, DOWN, or a tie. They aren't two separate markets -- they're two views of the same trade. * For any single fill, the DOWN price is \$1 minus the UP price. The two prices you see on screen can add up to slightly more than \$1; see [Prices shown are prices you can trade at](#prices-shown-are-prices-you-can-trade-at). * Your position shows as UP or DOWN, depending on which side you bought. * Because the two sides mirror each other, there's a single order book for UP, and the DOWN price is derived from it. ## Prices shown are prices you can trade at The UP and DOWN prices you see are executable prices, not a mid-price: * The UP price shown is the best price you could buy UP at right now. * The DOWN price shown is the best price you could buy DOWN at right now. Because both sides are quoted at the price you'd actually trade at, UP + DOWN usually add up to slightly more than \$1 -- the difference is the market's spread, not an error. In thin markets, the gap can be wider. ## No leverage, no liquidation, no funding Orderly Predict works differently from perpetual futures: * **No leverage.** Every position is fully collateralized; there's nothing to borrow. * **No liquidation.** Because positions are fully collateralized up front, there's no maintenance margin to fall below and nothing to liquidate. * **No funding.** Rounds settle within minutes, so there's no funding rate. ## Availability Whether Orderly Predict is available depends on the app you trade on -- Builders choose whether to enable it for their users. Check the terms of the app you're trading on before you trade, or see [Builders](https://staging-docs.orderly.network/introduction/trade-on-orderly/builders.md) for the current list. Orderly Predict is also subject to its own [Supplemental Terms](https://staging-docs.orderly.network/introduction/trade-on-orderly/orderly-predict/supplemental-terms.md) and is not offered to US Persons or Restricted Persons. ## Related pages * [Rounds and Settlement](https://staging-docs.orderly.network/introduction/trade-on-orderly/orderly-predict/rounds-and-settlement.md) -- how a round moves from open to settled. * [Trading Rules](https://staging-docs.orderly.network/introduction/trade-on-orderly/orderly-predict/trading-rules.md) -- order types, price and size limits, and margin. * [Orderly Predict fees](https://staging-docs.orderly.network/introduction/trade-on-orderly/trading-basics/trading-fees.md#orderly-predict-fees) -- how trading fees are calculated. This documentation is built and hosted on [Mintlify](https://mintlify.com), a developer documentation platform.